Published: September 19, 2009 11:21 pm      

Indiana's jobless rate dips under 10 percent

Elkhart County again leads the state at 16 percent.

INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana’s unemployment rate dropped to 9.9 percent in August, but officials said it is too early to tell whether the decline marked the beginning of a long-awaited recovery.

Once again Elkhart County leads the state in unemployment, although that number is also following.

Numbers released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show Indiana’s jobless rate fell from 10.6 percent in July, putting it among just four states with measurable rate decreases over the month. More than 307,000 Indiana residents were looking for work in August, down from 332,000 in July.

“I don’t know that people should break open the Champagne bottle at this point, but maybe buy a beer this weekend,” said Carol Rogers, deputy director of the Indiana Business Research Center.

The August unemployment rate dropped as Indiana recorded fewer people working and a smaller labor force. That’s a sign that people are giving up their job searches, retiring early, moving or otherwise leaving the work force, Rogers said.

“There is some small bit of light occurring there (in August numbers), but it’s being overshadowed by people leaving the labor force,” she said. “People have stopped looking.”

The three other states with the largest drops in their monthly unemployment rates — Colorado, Kansas and Virginia — also experienced similar trends. None actually added any jobs.

The Indiana Department of Workforce Development said it’s too early to say whether the decline is just a blip. Agency Commissioner Teresa Voors said key factors used to determine employment numbers appear to contradict each other, so it will be difficult to determine the significance of August figures until more data arrives.

“The next few months should provide evidence of a trend or a one-month survey anomaly,” Voors said.

The Indiana Business Research Center, in fact, predicts that the state’s unemployment rate could hit 11 percent before beginning a more permanent downward trend.

Elkhart County saw a drop of 0.8 percent, which, although positive, leaves the county once again atop the list for unemployment in the state with 16 percent. LaGrange County saw a similar drop to 14.9 percent, as did Noble County, which now rests at 15.7 percent. Kosciusko County saw only a 0.3 percent drop to 11.6 percent.

The city of Elkhart saw little change, dropping only one tenth of a percent to 18.8 percent. Goshen, however, saw a serious decrease, dropping 1.6 percent to 15.1 percent. Still, both are at the top of the list for cities with a population of more than 25,000. Nearby South Bend saw a decrease to 12.3 percent.

Indiana’s rate is below that of its neighbors. The August rate in Michigan was 15.2 percent, compared to 11.1 percent in Kentucky, 10.8 percent in Ohio and 10 percent in Illinois.

Indiana will get its next peek at the state’s unemployment situation on Oct. 21, when September jobless numbers are released.