Goshen News, Goshen, IN

Business

January 25, 2014

Fear of slowing growth pushes down global markets

(Continued)

Slower growth in China is bad news for countries that supply oil, iron ore and other raw materials to the world’s second-biggest economy. Some of those countries, such as Indonesia and South Africa, were already struggling with an outflow of capital as rising U.S. interest rates drew investors to the United States.

Here’s a look at the forces buffeting global financial markets:

End of easy money

Since the global financial crisis hit in 2008, the Federal Reserve has flooded markets with cash to push interest rates lower and encourage U.S. businesses and consumers to borrow and spend. But last month, as signs of growing economic strength emerged in the U.S., the Fed cut back — reducing its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion. It also said that it expected to reduce the bond-buying further “in measured steps” at upcoming meetings.

The Fed meets again next Tuesday and Wednesday. Many economists expect the central bank to cut the purchases again — perhaps to $65 billion a month.

The scaling back of the Fed’s easy money policies has hit some emerging markets hard. When the Fed was pushing U.S. rates lower, emerging markets had seen an inflow of capital from investors seeking higher returns than they could get in the United States. Now investment is flowing back to America, hammering currencies in emerging markets.

The South African rand, Russian ruble, Turkish lira, and especially the Argentinian peso — which fell 13 percent Thursday — have been “trounced,” said Jane Foley, a currency strategist at Rabobank. “Talk that the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce another reduction in its monthly bond purchases next week ... (is also) contributing to a loss of confidence in some emerging markets,” she said.

Political turmoil

In some countries, concerns over the local political or financial situation have worsened the market volatility dramatically. That was most obvious in Argentina, where the peso this week suffered its sharpest fall since the country’s 2002 economic collapse. The government, running short of reserves it could use to buy the currency and keep it from falling, has let the peso drop instead. The country’s economic fundamentals are grim: Inflation is believed to be running at about 25 percent to 30 percent.

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